0xcb14ea66fe71f23b5426d05b6db4b86dc34cbd17
0xcb14ea66fe71f23b5426d05b6db4b86dc34cbd17
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$14.4K
Total PnL
$2.1K
Realised
$1.4K
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- YES
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
3520 shares @ 24.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.3K
$2.4K
- NO
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
10010 shares @ 26.0¢·now 26.1¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$2.6K
$1.64
- YES
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
2297 shares @ 80.1¢·now 81.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.9K
$31.01
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
4500 shares @ 36.3¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.5K
$-127.49
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
2100 shares @ 57.0¢·now 55.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.2K
$-43.00
- YES
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?
1179 shares @ 82.1¢·now 80.6¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$950.23
$-18.08
- YES
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?
1212 shares @ 85.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$781.66
$-248.44
- YES
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?
1008 shares @ 56.5¢·now 43.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$438.68
$-131.31
- YES
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
1147 shares @ 20.9¢·now 20.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$229.38
$-10.00
- YES
Will Don Beyer be the VA-08 Democratic nominee?
232 shares @ 97.6¢·now 97.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$225.38
$-1.49
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Phil Weiser win the Colorado Governor Democratic Primary by more than 15%?$0.00Jul 28, 07:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Graham Platner be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$1.0KJul 28, 06:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Janet Mills be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$0.00Jul 28, 06:12 UTC
- REWARD$3.45Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jim Schwartzel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?$17.38Jul 27, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jim Schwartzel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?$7.62Jul 27, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$146.00Jul 27, 18:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Shenna Bellows be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$1.5KJul 27, 17:12 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?$3.60Jul 27, 07:48 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.09Jul 27, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$5.82Jul 27, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?$143.09Jul 26, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?$243.90Jul 26, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?$243.90Jul 26, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?$58.33Jul 26, 04:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?$23.60Jul 26, 04:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?$140.77Jul 26, 02:26 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.16Jul 26, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$0.49Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$11.50Jul 26, 00:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $91.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 04:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 07:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.