0xcb39d6f16f6a2da220a1910a7760f54fa7241d84
0xcb39d6f16f6a2da220a1910a7760f54fa7241d84
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$133.09
Total PnL
$-8.96
Realised
$-7.64
Win rate
13%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- YES
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
67 shares @ 97.7¢·now 93.9¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$63.34
$-2.55
- YES
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
18 shares @ 73.4¢·now 92.9¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$17.15
$3.60
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
20 shares @ 79.1¢·now 75.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$15.46
$-0.74
- NO
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
9 shares @ 90.4¢·now 96.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$8.52
$0.52
- NO
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
5 shares @ 75.0¢·now 96.8¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$5.02
$1.13
- YES
Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?
4 shares @ 92.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$3.88
$-0.06
- YES
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
3 shares @ 59.1¢·now 74.9¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$2.42
$0.51
- YES
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
5 shares @ 40.2¢·now 45.8¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$2.11
$0.26
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
2 shares @ 91.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.06
$0.08
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?
2 shares @ 89.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.97
$-0.01
Recent activity
- REDEEMCizek Marek vs. Herrmann Vit$2.03Jul 28, 23:19 UTC
- TRADESELLPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins$2.66Jul 28, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins$1.91Jul 28, 21:46 UTC
- TRADESELLPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins$0.88Jul 28, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins$1.91Jul 28, 21:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.91Jul 28, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.96Jul 28, 21:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rīga FC win on 2026-07-28?$0.00Jul 28, 21:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-08-08?$0.18Jul 28, 21:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill CA Tigre win on 2026-07-28?$1.73Jul 28, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Manchester United win on 2026-08-01?$1.96Jul 28, 21:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apóllon Lemesoú win on 2026-07-28?$2.52Jul 28, 20:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-08-08?$1.98Jul 28, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?$1.98Jul 28, 20:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYCizek Marek vs. Herrmann Vit$1.99Jul 28, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CA Tigre win on 2026-07-28?$1.91Jul 28, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?$1.98Jul 28, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apóllon Lemesoú win on 2026-07-28?$1.96Jul 28, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rīga FC win on 2026-07-28?$1.95Jul 28, 16:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill KA Akureyri win on 2026-07-27?$0.00Jul 27, 23:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
13% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $1.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 02:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 23:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.