Celebrated-Caffeine
0xcb6ffcd138ea263162d731c3daedf9e194d4f414
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$90.08
Total PnL
$-55.81
Realised
$-5.48
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- YES
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?
20 shares @ 30.6¢·now 42.8¢·exp Jan 10, 2027$8.56
$2.45
- YES
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?
17 shares @ 52.2¢·now 42.4¢·exp Jan 29, 2027$7.39
$-1.71
- YES
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be less than -1.0%?
217 shares @ 6.1¢·now 2.9¢·exp Jan 10, 2027$6.30
$-6.98
- YES
Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 5.50%?
81 shares @ 14.7¢·now 7.5¢·exp Jan 8, 2027$6.08
$-5.81
- YES
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
17 shares @ 37.0¢·now 33.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2027$5.59
$-0.68
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 29?
5 shares @ 46.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$5.00
$2.70
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 29?
5 shares @ 61.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$4.92
$1.88
- YES
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?
10 shares @ 49.4¢·now 46.7¢·exp Jan 12, 2027$4.55
$-0.26
- YES
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be less than 0.5%?
61 shares @ 7.2¢·now 6.3¢·exp Jan 29, 2027$3.84
$-0.60
- YES
Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%?
7 shares @ 76.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jan 8, 2027$3.42
$-1.63
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 30?$3.21Jul 29, 10:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on July 29?$2.75Jul 29, 10:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 29?$2.51Jul 29, 10:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 28?$0.00Jul 29, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on July 30?$2.66Jul 29, 08:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on July 29?$1.91Jul 29, 08:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 29?$4.27Jul 29, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 29?$1.61Jul 29, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 29?$1.81Jul 29, 07:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 30?$3.01Jul 29, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 29?$2.81Jul 29, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 29?$2.01Jul 29, 03:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 29?$3.11Jul 29, 02:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 29?$2.36Jul 29, 02:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 29?$2.36Jul 29, 02:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on July 29?$6.62Jul 28, 23:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 28?$0.00Jul 28, 18:59 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 10AM ET$0.00Jul 28, 18:59 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: Gamespace Mediterranean College Esports vs Team Phantasma - Game 1 Winner$10.00Jul 28, 18:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 28?$3.14Jul 28, 16:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $3.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 01:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 10:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.