Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be less than -1.0%?
Probability
0¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$35.02
Liquidity
$4.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
-9.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6229.1h
- 10:52SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6229h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.6pp
to 0¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.6pp
to 0¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.6pp
to 0¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 0¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.9pp
to 0¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report. The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)". Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 10, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to theAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
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