Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 5.50%?
Probability
33¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-7.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$363.80
Probability (last 7 days)
-5.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 8pp over 24h
Now 33¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6173h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 44.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6172.6h
- 19:22SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 6173h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-2.5pp over the last 24h, now 39¢.
Biggest hourly move: +34.0pp at 1d ago (to 48¢).
Show all 38 hour-by-hour ticks
- 19:00 · +21.5pp → 35¢
- 17:00 · +21.0pp → 35¢
- 15:00 · +29.0pp → 42¢
- 14:00 · +24.0pp → 37¢
- 12:00 · +23.5pp → 37¢
- 11:00 · +24.0pp → 37¢
- 09:00 · +30.0pp → 43¢
- 08:00 · +28.5pp → 42¢
- 06:00 · +32.5pp → 46¢
- 05:00 · +29.0pp → 42¢
- 03:00 · +28.0pp → 41¢
- 02:00 · +23.0pp → 36¢
- 00:00 · +31.0pp → 44¢
- 23:00 · +28.5pp → 42¢
- 21:00 · +29.0pp → 42¢
- 20:00 · +28.5pp → 42¢
- 1d ago · +32.5pp → 46¢
- 1d ago · +32.0pp → 45¢
- 1d ago · +29.0pp → 42¢
- 1d ago · +19.0pp → 33¢
- 1d ago · +29.5pp → 44¢
- 1d ago · +28.5pp → 42¢
- 1d ago · +26.5pp → 40¢
- 1d ago · +34.0pp → 48¢
- 2d ago · +21.5pp → 35¢
- 2d ago · +28.5pp → 42¢
- 2d ago · +26.0pp → 40¢
- 2d ago · +26.5pp → 40¢
- 2d ago · +33.5pp → 47¢
- 2d ago · +28.0pp → 42¢
- 2d ago · +19.5pp → 33¢
- 2d ago · +31.0pp → 45¢
- 2d ago · +12.5pp → 27¢
- 2d ago · +14.0pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · +11.5pp → 26¢
- 2d ago · +8.5pp → 34¢
- 2d ago · -11.5pp → 14¢
- 2d ago · -26.0pp → 14¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month. The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 8, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflatioAmbiguous wordingextracted · lowen.www.inegi.org.mx
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (44.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.