Useful-Identity
0xcbb1c1b73489c748a792356674a8d7e671e88d22
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$148.62
Total PnL
$-517.70
Realised
$0.67
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?
199 shares @ 50.3¢·now 46.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$91.35
$-8.65
- YES
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December?
256 shares @ 19.5¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$37.18
$-12.82
- YES
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in November?
223 shares @ 9.8¢·now 9.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$20.09
$-1.91
- NOTHING
Nothing Ever Happens: February
12793 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-76.22
- YES
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
406 shares @ 41.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-170.00
- YES
Maduro mugshot released by January 9?
225 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-29.25
- YES
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May?
149 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-85.00
- YES
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?
134 shares @ 37.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026?
125 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-60.00
- YES
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
48 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-24.53
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December?$8.00Jul 9, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in November?$22.00Jul 9, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?$100.00Jul 9, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December?$42.00Jul 9, 20:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran close its airspace by August 31?$236.99Jun 17, 22:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran close its airspace by August 31?$73.30Jun 14, 22:41 UTC
- REDEEMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$73.18Jun 14, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$31.30Jun 1, 14:53 UTC
- TRADESELLTaylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?$15.60Jun 1, 14:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gigi Hadid be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?$10.68Jun 1, 14:52 UTC
- TRADESELLTaylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?$0.07May 31, 02:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYTaylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?$46.72May 31, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gigi Hadid be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?$76.23May 31, 00:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May?$85.00May 14, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?$50.00Mar 31, 15:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026?$60.00Mar 31, 15:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: February$39.80Feb 6, 00:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: February$10.85Feb 6, 00:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: February$25.58Feb 6, 00:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$52.00Jan 16, 01:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $32.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 22, 11:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 20:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.