Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?
Probability
4¢
1h
+0.4pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$1.1K
Liquidity
$20.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $20.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
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Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 98.0h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.
Biggest hourly move: -3.6pp at 12:00 (to 2¢).
Show 4 hourly moves
- 15:00 · -3.4pp → 3¢
- 14:00 · -3.3pp → 3¢
- 12:00 · -3.6pp → 2¢
- 11:00 · -3.1pp → 3¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryIsraeli governmentTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
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