Hasty-Rhinoceros
0xcc3616221086e1ec1f0a59362284309f122ed35d
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
113
Open notional
$1.1K
Total PnL
$-3.0K
Realised
$-87.64
Win rate
10%
41 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 113- YES
Will the Republican Party win the TN-05 House seat?
50 shares @ 91.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$43.00
$-2.50
- NO
Will Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day?
50 shares @ 91.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$43.00
$-2.50
- NO
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?
50 shares @ 86.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$42.25
$-0.75
- NO
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?
50 shares @ 89.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$41.25
$-3.25
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?
50 shares @ 88.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$40.75
$-3.25
- NO
Will "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be between 30k and 40k?
50 shares @ 83.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$40.25
$-1.25
- NO
Will Héctor Javier Santana García win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?
50 shares @ 85.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jun 6, 2027$38.25
$-4.25
- NO
Arc FDV above $5B one day after launch?
50 shares @ 86.0¢·now 76.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$38.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 10%-15%?
50 shares @ 84.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$37.75
$-4.25
- NO
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?
50 shares @ 76.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$36.26
$-1.75
Recent activity
- TRADESELLPredict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?$24.68Aug 20, 02:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alex Lawson win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?$8.27Aug 20, 02:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alex Lawson win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?$32.85Aug 20, 02:08 UTC
- TRADESELLBank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?$41.15Aug 20, 01:59 UTC
- TRADESELLMetamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?$10.19Aug 20, 01:58 UTC
- TRADESELLMetamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?$36.54Aug 20, 01:58 UTC
- TRADESELLFelix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch?$47.01Aug 20, 01:57 UTC
- TRADESELLFelix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch?$46.62Aug 20, 01:57 UTC
- TRADESELLFelix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch?$4.68Aug 20, 01:56 UTC
- TRADESELLJack Lowden announced as next James Bond?$11.11Aug 20, 01:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?$42.50Aug 20, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYJames Norton announced as next James Bond?$2.80Aug 20, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYJack Lowden announced as next James Bond?$12.00Aug 20, 01:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?$37.50Aug 20, 01:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?$2.40Aug 20, 01:12 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$4.00Aug 20, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYMetamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?$48.05Aug 20, 00:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?$3.07Aug 20, 00:07 UTC
- REWARD$169.02Aug 20, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYFelix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch?$47.30Aug 19, 23:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
10% win rate over 41 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
41 closed markets, 10% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $20.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 19, 19:21 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 02:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 41 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.