Wobbly-Chain
0xcc792a28d90f3c5d8fe91e48a184913a65031c2a
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
129
Open notional
$187.7K
Total PnL
$4.5K
Realised
$-429.67
Win rate
71%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 129- NO
New pandemic in 2026?
24354 shares @ 88.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.3K
$856.17
- NO
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
30000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 57.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$17.1K
$2.1K
- NO
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
14000 shares @ 85.2¢·now 94.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$13.3K
$1.3K
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
30000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 43.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$12.9K
$-2.1K
- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
11600 shares @ 94.3¢·now 96.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.2K
$274.24
- NO
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
11500 shares @ 94.2¢·now 91.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$10.5K
$-319.22
- NO
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?
8069 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$8.0K
$46.20
- NO
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
7631 shares @ 94.3¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.2K
$18.04
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
6000 shares @ 87.7¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.5K
$230.02
- NO
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?
5000 shares @ 97.8¢·now 98.5¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$4.9K
$31.53
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?$200.00Jul 28, 18:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?$11.86Jul 28, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GameStop acquire eBay?$266.32Jul 28, 13:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GameStop acquire eBay?$593.68Jul 28, 13:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GameStop acquire eBay?$870.00Jul 28, 11:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYIAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?$110.35Jul 28, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYMajor CEX insolvent in 2026?$3.78Jul 28, 02:27 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.21Jul 28, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$4.37Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$4.63Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYChristine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?$79.80Jul 27, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?$154.00Jul 27, 15:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?$31.95Jul 27, 12:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?$47.82Jul 27, 12:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$350.00Jul 27, 11:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$0.01Jul 27, 10:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Avengers: Doomsday be delayed?$50.00Jul 27, 10:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYIAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?$38.52Jul 27, 09:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYIAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?$28.89Jul 27, 09:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$0.01Jul 27, 09:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $73.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 03:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.