Concerned-Ownership
0xccb33315e8b055796a10b87a73c010a63682fbfc
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$0.99
Total PnL
$-153.81
Realised
$-2.81
Win rate
0%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- YES
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
104 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.99
$-4.01
- NO
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by July 4?
203 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?
85 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11?
59 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
52 shares @ 19.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
46 shares @ 32.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw?
45 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?
32 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Canada win on 2026-07-04?
28 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$8.33Jul 29, 20:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$7.94Jul 20, 02:04 UTC
- REDEEMSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$8.33Jul 19, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$5.10Jul 18, 14:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. England: Team to Win$5.08Jul 18, 14:36 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win on 2026-07-14?$5.15Jul 14, 05:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?$8.47Jul 12, 22:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win on 2026-07-10?$24.59Jul 10, 21:37 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill France win on 2026-07-09?$32.00Jul 9, 22:37 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland win on 2026-07-11?$10.25Jul 8, 18:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win on 2026-07-09?$5.06Jul 8, 18:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England win on 2026-07-11?$10.14Jul 8, 05:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win on 2026-07-10?$15.18Jul 8, 05:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
20 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 20
- Avg trade size
- $7.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 3, 06:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 20:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.