0xcd3a05572021d0aa12c136d6b148449c47015263
0xcd3a05572021d0aa12c136d6b148449c47015263
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
73
Open notional
$79.68
Total PnL
$-96.35
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 73- NO
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
13 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$12.96
$6.48
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
12 shares @ 50.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$10.86
$4.86
- NO
Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election?
10 shares @ 95.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$10.45
$0.45
- YES
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?
7 shares @ 22.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$7.27
$5.67
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?
7 shares @ 15.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$6.67
$5.67
- YES
Will 8–9 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?
7 shares @ 15.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$6.67
$5.67
- YES
Will SpaceX list on the NASDAQ?
5 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.51
$0.23
- NO
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
4 shares @ 23.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$4.35
$3.35
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?
3 shares @ 39.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$2.56
$1.56
- YES
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup?
2 shares @ 43.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$2.32
$1.32
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?$6.00Apr 23, 01:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill RIKU Dining Group Ltd’s market cap be less than $90M at market close on IPO day?$1.00Apr 16, 04:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYClaude 4.7 released by April 30?$1.00Apr 16, 03:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by April 30?$1.00Apr 16, 02:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by April 30?$1.00Apr 16, 01:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of April 13 above $400?$1.00Apr 16, 00:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill XRP reach $1.80 in April?$1.00Apr 15, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by April 30, 2026?$1.00Apr 15, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?$1.00Apr 15, 03:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYDeepSeek V4 released by May 15?$1.00Apr 15, 02:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$1.00Apr 15, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?$1.00Apr 15, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$1.00Apr 14, 06:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran strike Ghawar Field by April 30?$1.00Apr 14, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$1.00Apr 14, 03:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?$1.00Apr 14, 02:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?$1.00Apr 14, 01:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill White House post 160-179 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?$1.00Apr 14, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?$1.00Apr 13, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$6.48Apr 13, 05:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 22, 14:20 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 23, 01:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.