Determined-Percentage
0xcd71fd5370880f3d92bb941e628c05840fe0d127
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
34
Open notional
$440.1K
Total PnL
$36.6K
Realised
$18.1K
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
100000 shares @ 72.9¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$76.5K
$3.6K
- NO
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
67664 shares @ 86.6¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$59.2K
$640.31
- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
56503 shares @ 75.1¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$53.4K
$11.0K
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
75000 shares @ 62.5¢·now 65.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$49.1K
$2.2K
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
31334 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$31.3K
$15.67
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
30639 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$30.6K
$15.32
- NO
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
23509 shares @ 65.4¢·now 69.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$16.2K
$835.99
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
17429 shares @ 77.8¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.8K
$2.2K
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
15000 shares @ 93.3¢·now 91.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$13.7K
$-274.90
- NO
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
16381 shares @ 47.8¢·now 76.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.4K
$4.6K
Recent activity
- YIELD$1.30Aug 2, 00:12 UTC
- REWARD$6.69Aug 2, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$2.0KAug 1, 21:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$907.17Aug 1, 19:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$307.14Aug 1, 19:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$2.4KAug 1, 18:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$1.1KAug 1, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$0.20Aug 1, 17:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$68.33Aug 1, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$0.09Aug 1, 17:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$0.09Aug 1, 17:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$5.03Aug 1, 17:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$144.14Aug 1, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$0.02Aug 1, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$575.00Aug 1, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$911.11Aug 1, 17:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$365.01Aug 1, 16:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$85.14Aug 1, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$575.00Aug 1, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$1.7KAug 1, 15:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$7.7K
Trades
1
Buy share
0%
Window
May 20, 00:20 UTC → May 20, 00:16 UTC
- SELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?$7.7K@99¢May 20, 00:16 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
0%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
$7.7K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $602.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 19:27 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 2, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.