Hurtful-Sentencing
0xce4967e67994d4851fdc4c0efe61c9247626c3b9
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$632.41
Total PnL
$-13.0K
Realised
$2.7K
Win rate
85%
46 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1467 shares @ 23.3¢·now 21.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$310.27
$-32.19
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
1113 shares @ 23.2¢·now 20.6¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$229.83
$-28.57
- NO
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?
100 shares @ 47.5¢·now 46.5¢·exp May 30, 2027$46.50
$-1.00
- YES
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
273 shares @ 9.8¢·now 10.3¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$28.14
$1.47
- YES
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
250 shares @ 2.9¢·now 4.3¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$10.85
$3.55
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$3.50
$-3.50
- YES
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
150 shares @ 2.0¢·now 1.6¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$2.33
$-0.67
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.75
$-1.25
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.25
$-0.75
- NETS
Spread: Suns (-2.5)
143152 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 10, 2025$0.00
$-4.6K
Recent activity
- REWARD$1.66Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- MERGEWill Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$20.00Jul 28, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$4.77Jul 28, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$5.63Jul 28, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$3.84Jul 28, 18:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.87Jul 28, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.87Jul 28, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$55.00Jul 28, 03:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$7.56Jul 27, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$26.58Jul 27, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$4.18Jul 27, 14:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$52.20Jul 27, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$7.37Jul 27, 14:16 UTC
- REWARD$2.56Jul 27, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$23.45Jul 26, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.83Jul 26, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.00Jul 26, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.83Jul 26, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.14Jul 26, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.83Jul 26, 16:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
85% win rate over 46 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
46 closed markets, 85% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $6.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 19:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 46 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.