Nervous-Comfort
0xce98cd8fa5114932c42539fef9ebff954d2cfbb1
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
92
Open notional
$150.48
Total PnL
$-805.71
Realised
$12.11
Win rate
9%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 92- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
24 shares @ 90.6¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.41
$-0.27
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?
17 shares @ 87.0¢·now 96.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$15.92
$1.53
- NO
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?
18 shares @ 78.0¢·now 74.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$13.26
$-0.72
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
14 shares @ 82.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$13.25
$1.50
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
13 shares @ 97.2¢·now 98.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$12.88
$0.19
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?
12 shares @ 90.0¢·now 96.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$11.75
$0.81
- NO
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 95.0¢·now 96.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$9.27
$0.18
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
9 shares @ 88.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.76
$0.21
- NO
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
6 shares @ 94.6¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.21
$0.21
- YES
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $120 in July?
182 shares @ 8.2¢·now 3.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$5.63
$-9.34
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?$6.71Jul 8, 06:04 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 8, 00:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$1.03Jul 7, 16:27 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 7, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?$12.20Jul 4, 18:03 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 4, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone in 2026?$0.90Jul 3, 05:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$4.40Jul 3, 04:57 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 3, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$1.89Jul 2, 16:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.00 in July?$11.23Jul 2, 14:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
9% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $4.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 09:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.