Ironclad-Premier
0xcfb8408de777bd2634e6d684bd3c08b90ba1ec8d
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$875.41
Total PnL
$-75.08
Realised
$-2.06
Win rate
40%
5 closed
Largest open positions
- SRI LANKA
T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka
887 shares @ 47.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$447.94
$31.05
- NO
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
248 shares @ 81.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$221.96
$21.08
- NO
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $26B?
92 shares @ 79.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$85.10
$12.42
- OPENAI
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
599 shares @ 36.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$56.91
$-158.73
- NO
Will Loopscale launch a token by September 30, 2026?
50 shares @ 61.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$46.00
$15.50
- NO
Will Bernie endorse Alan Grayson for FL-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET?
17 shares @ 65.0¢·now 95.7¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$16.27
$5.22
- YES
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?
1 shares @ 53.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$1.00
$0.47
- YES
Mistral AI IPO before 2027?
2 shares @ 15.0¢·now 14.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.24
$-0.02
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill CZ return to Binance by December 31?$0.00Jun 18, 01:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump pardon Roger Stone in 2025?$0.00Jun 18, 01:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 01:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in November 2025?$0.00Jun 18, 01:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Miami Heat win more than 37.5 regular season games in 2025–26?$0.44Jun 18, 01:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 12, 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 01:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Drake's next album debut No.1 on Billboard 200?$0.00Jun 18, 01:02 UTC
- REDEEMJohn Brennan federally charged by December 31?$0.75Jun 18, 01:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$0.00Jun 18, 01:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Reed Sheppard win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?$1.00Jun 18, 01:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Pete Chambers win the 2026 Texas Governor Republican primary election?$0.00Jun 18, 01:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31? $0.00Jun 18, 01:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?$2.00Jun 18, 01:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill It Was Just an Accident win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Jun 18, 01:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?$2.00Jun 18, 01:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$0.00Jun 18, 01:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in December?$3.00Jun 18, 01:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Jun 18, 01:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amazon (AMZN) hit a 52-Week High by December 31?$0.00Jun 18, 01:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast hit 119 billion views by April 30?$0.00Jun 18, 01:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 01:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 01:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.