Paltry-Empire
0xcfdad008face915d70e8739c1d5b713fcd955709
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
60
Open notional
$700.99
Total PnL
$-298.57
Realised
$154.70
Win rate
70%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 60- NO
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?
293 shares @ 85.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$293.00
$43.95
- NO
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30?
85 shares @ 73.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$85.00
$22.95
- NO
Will Perena launch a token by June 30, 2026?
67 shares @ 62.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$66.63
$25.32
- NO
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
56 shares @ 96.2¢·now 99.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$55.72
$1.85
- NO
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
55 shares @ 96.3¢·now 99.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$54.92
$1.95
- NO
Deel IPO before 2027?
39 shares @ 78.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$37.47
$6.87
- NO
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?
60 shares @ 22.0¢·now 53.9¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$32.34
$19.14
- NO
Will Alexis Hill win the 2026 Nevada Governor Democratic primary election?
29 shares @ 87.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$29.00
$3.77
- NO
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?
21 shares @ 29.0¢·now 97.3¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$20.42
$14.33
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
30 shares @ 31.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$12.45
$3.15
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Polymarket mindshare hit 90%?$3.00May 22, 10:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trae Young lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?$3.00May 22, 10:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?$3.00May 22, 10:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike 1 country in 2026?$3.00May 22, 10:17 UTC
- REDEEM2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 30% by March 31?$3.00May 22, 10:17 UTC
- REDEEMForeign intervention in Gaza by March 31?$3.60May 22, 10:17 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31?$4.30May 22, 10:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?$4.92May 22, 10:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$16.00May 22, 10:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Cynthia Erivo be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?$25.00May 22, 10:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?$40.00May 22, 10:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Orlando Magic win more than 51.5 regular season games in 2025–26?$41.00May 22, 10:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill It Was Just an Accident win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?$57.00May 22, 10:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$85.00May 22, 10:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Adam Scott (Severance) win Best Actor – Television Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?$100.00May 22, 10:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison?$103.00May 22, 10:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Polymarket mindshare hit 85%?$121.34May 22, 10:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill George Clooney be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$152.99May 22, 10:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?$5.98Feb 8, 20:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs?$25.53Feb 8, 19:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
70% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $71.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 6, 13:43 UTC
- Last active
- May 22, 10:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.