Unwelcome-Opponent
0xd054e72b9e7995a6900aa8ced24dcfbd12007e38
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
37
Open notional
$107.9K
Total PnL
$-4.5K
Realised
$285.31
Win rate
67%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
86527 shares @ 50.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$69.2K
$25.9K
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
86527 shares @ 50.0¢·now 20.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$17.3K
$-25.9K
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
11800 shares @ 71.3¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.0K
$609.03
- NO
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?
1500 shares @ 76.0¢·now 87.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.3K
$165.00
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
1556 shares @ 55.1¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.2K
$379.85
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
2354 shares @ 58.8¢·now 50.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.2K
$-195.35
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
1000 shares @ 79.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$905.01
$115.00
- NO
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
900 shares @ 83.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$823.50
$76.50
- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
10848 shares @ 17.8¢·now 7.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$808.21
$-1.1K
- NO
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
900 shares @ 74.3¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$778.49
$109.50
Recent activity
- YIELD$7.74Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$7.73Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$7.73Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?$410.21Jul 26, 20:08 UTC
- YIELD$7.73Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$7.73Jul 25, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?$5.36Jul 24, 02:36 UTC
- YIELD$7.74Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?$4.41Jul 23, 21:21 UTC
- YIELD$7.74Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$7.74Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$7.74Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- YIELD$7.74Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$7.74Jul 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$7.74Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$7.74Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$7.74Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$7.74Jul 15, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$7.74Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$7.74Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
3 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 3
- Avg trade size
- $139.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 06:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.