Simplistic-Casement
0xd18846c09294227f07f811814dc00e3c1dce6f68
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
54
Open notional
$139.28
Total PnL
$-127.51
Realised
$6.51
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 54- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
333 shares @ 33.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$114.97
$4.97
- YES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
13 shares @ 24.0¢·now 32.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$4.00
$1.00
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
14 shares @ 14.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.36
$1.36
- NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
10 shares @ 21.0¢·now 21.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.00
$0.00
- YES
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
22 shares @ 9.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.89
$-0.11
- YES
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
6 shares @ 32.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.59
$-0.41
- YES
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
4 shares @ 25.1¢·now 35.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.40
$0.40
- NO
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
2 shares @ 52.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.37
$0.37
- YES
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 21.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.19
$-0.81
- YES
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by August 31, 2026?
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 5.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.07
$0.07
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be Houthi military action against Israel by July 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 21, 08:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by August 31, 2026?$1.04Jul 21, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$1.00Jul 19, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?$1.00Jul 19, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$3.00Jul 19, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$2.00Jul 19, 20:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$8.90Jul 18, 18:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.11Jul 18, 18:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?$4.73Jul 17, 07:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$6.37Jul 17, 07:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Fake News" during Speech to the Nation?$3.03Jul 17, 03:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump’s remarks not air?$1.04Jul 16, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Israel" or "Israeli" during Speech to the Nation?$2.05Jul 16, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Fake News" during Speech to the Nation?$1.03Jul 16, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" or "Iranian" 20+ times during Speech to the Nation?$1.04Jul 16, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Million," "Billion," or "Trillion" 20+ times during Speech to the Nation?$1.03Jul 16, 16:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?$3.94Jul 16, 15:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill England win on 2026-07-15?$3.76Jul 15, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England vs. Argentina end in a draw?$1.04Jul 15, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England win on 2026-07-15?$2.07Jul 15, 19:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $2.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 16:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 08:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.