0xd282e90750f88922cf28fa889486b51bd2e3a206
0xd282e90750f88922cf28fa889486b51bd2e3a206
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
193
Open notional
$2.6K
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 193- NO
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
378 shares @ 47.0¢·now 46.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$173.74
$-3.78
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
200 shares @ 67.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$155.00
$21.00
- NO
Will MVK Esports qualify for EWC 2026?
103 shares @ 45.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$103.04
$56.34
- YES
Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.50% (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 49.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$100.00
$51.00
- NO
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
105 shares @ 48.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$89.95
$39.45
- NO
Will Leeds be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?
81 shares @ 86.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$80.79
$10.81
- NO
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by April 30?
79 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$79.42
$12.71
- YES
Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election?
75 shares @ 85.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$75.20
$11.28
- YES
Surf FDV above $100M one day after launch?
113 shares @ 56.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$69.56
$6.22
- YES
Will SZA have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
136 shares @ 49.0¢·now 49.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$66.64
$0.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 29, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 28, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 24, 00:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
9 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 9
- Avg trade size
- $5.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 13, 11:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.