Will SZA have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
Probability
46¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$147.48
Probability (last 7 days)
+6.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5988.1h
- 11:53SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5988h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 47¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 47¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 47¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 48¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 48¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart. Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026. Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; however, such updates will not disqualify a previously published Billboard Hot 100 #1 song from counting. If a Billboard Hot 100 #1 song is revised after initial publication, both the originally published #1 song and the revised #1 song will count for this market. Updates or revisions made after the release of the final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs charts published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ and through other official Billboard channels.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (63.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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