Merry-Chairman
0xd2cba0c6464f96d2567ecc81d5f708d9670e7729
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$3.4K
Total PnL
$-299.02
Realised
$4.68
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
611 shares @ 94.5¢·now 73.8¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$450.86
$-126.65
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
451 shares @ 93.5¢·now 96.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$433.40
$11.40
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
326 shares @ 92.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$301.63
$1.63
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
321 shares @ 93.6¢·now 93.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$300.80
$0.80
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
501 shares @ 86.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$237.81
$-192.75
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
231 shares @ 91.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$211.27
$1.27
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
220 shares @ 91.0¢·now 96.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$211.10
$11.10
- YES
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
285 shares @ 70.1¢·now 73.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$209.77
$9.77
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
370 shares @ 54.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$209.22
$9.22
- NO
New pandemic in 2026?
222 shares @ 90.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$198.89
$-1.11
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.02Jun 13, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 11, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLAI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?$46.66Jun 10, 06:54 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 10, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?$0.25Jun 9, 06:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$203.00Jun 9, 06:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?$200.00Jun 9, 06:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$403.13Jun 9, 06:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 9, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$430.55Jun 8, 08:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?$430.55Jun 8, 08:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$53.34Jun 8, 05:42 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 8, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump resign by December 31, 2026?$9.97Jun 7, 10:04 UTC
- TRADESELLXi Jinping out before 2027?$10.03Jun 7, 10:04 UTC
- TRADESELLErdoğan out by December 31, 2026?$10.30Jun 7, 10:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump be impeached by end of 2026?$10.66Jun 7, 10:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$11.66Jun 7, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$309.72Jun 7, 09:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $143.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 30, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 00:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.