Cautious-Compliance
0xd3de5841d93c211eeda91628127e84fed4b4fe0e
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$2.79
Total PnL
$-3.0K
Realised
$-27.91
Win rate
36%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
SBF released from custody in 2026?
19 shares @ 10.0¢·now 4.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.90
$-1.04
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
22 shares @ 1.8¢·now 2.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.47
$0.07
- YES
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
15 shares @ 2.4¢·now 3.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.46
$0.10
- YES
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
15 shares @ 2.0¢·now 2.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.35
$0.05
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?
16 shares @ 24.0¢·now 2.1¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$0.33
$-3.41
- YES
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?
19 shares @ 10.2¢·now 1.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.26
$-1.65
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
18 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.01
$-2.86
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
275 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-7.10
- NO
U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026?
200 shares @ 58.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-116.00
- NO
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?
200 shares @ 16.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-33.03
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?$0.62Jul 19, 04:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Michael Foust win the Tallahassee mayoral election?$0.21Jul 9, 23:06 UTC
- REDEEMMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?$1.11Jul 1, 06:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?$15.00Jun 27, 07:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Michael Foust win the Tallahassee mayoral election?$0.23Jun 12, 22:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?$3.05Jun 12, 14:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Michael Foust win the Tallahassee mayoral election?$1.20Jun 11, 00:08 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$2.64Jun 9, 14:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?$0.82Jun 8, 15:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?$92.74Jun 7, 04:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 7, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?$94.23Jun 7, 00:06 UTC
- TRADESELLUkraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?$11.30Jun 6, 22:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?$0.12Jun 6, 13:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?$3.10Jun 6, 11:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?$4.94Jun 6, 07:45 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jun 6, 04:29 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$1.83Jun 6, 04:11 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$0.37Jun 6, 04:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?$1.61Jun 6, 03:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
36% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $7.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 6, 02:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 04:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.