Fitting-Fiber
0xd3e3f209d9701a981e196bc297d2b5a5211467dc
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
59
Open notional
$4.0K
Total PnL
$-317.82
Realised
$552.37
Win rate
60%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 59- NO
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
900 shares @ 95.8¢·now 97.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$873.45
$11.25
- NO
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
1262 shares @ 44.1¢·now 66.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$839.49
$282.49
- NO
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
500 shares @ 79.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$452.50
$57.50
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
500 shares @ 62.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$332.50
$22.50
- NO
Will Perry Johnson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?
324 shares @ 61.6¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$302.47
$103.21
- NO
California voter ID referendum passes?
531 shares @ 74.1¢·now 53.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$281.18
$-111.94
- NO
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?
739 shares @ 31.8¢·now 30.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$221.81
$-13.49
- NO
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026?
124 shares @ 73.6¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$121.44
$30.23
- YES
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
93 shares @ 95.3¢·now 96.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$90.12
$1.17
- YES
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
237 shares @ 20.4¢·now 37.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$89.31
$41.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYSCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?$45.75Jul 19, 03:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$1.95Jul 18, 07:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$58.47Jul 18, 07:23 UTC
- REWARD$1.07Jul 17, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYCalifornia Affordable Housing Bond Proposition$2.24Jul 15, 14:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?$862.20Jul 15, 12:59 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.01Jul 13, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$1.33Jul 13, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?$73.24Jul 12, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?$18.96Jul 12, 21:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?$4.74Jul 12, 21:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?$63.20Jul 12, 21:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?$234.86Jul 12, 21:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?$310.00Jul 12, 04:02 UTC
- REWARD$1.09Jul 12, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$1.18Jul 11, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$1.03Jul 10, 19:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?$34.31Jul 10, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?$28.59Jul 10, 18:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYCalifornia High-Earner Permanent Tax Proposition$2.06Jul 10, 16:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $82.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 27, 23:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 03:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.