Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
Probability
43¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
+4.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$26.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+6.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 5pp over 24h
Now 43¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Momentum signal firing
Probability moved up 4.5pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 3
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 2576h with open resolution ambiguity.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2576.2h
- 15:49SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Momentum up
Probability moved up 4.5pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 15:49SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 2576h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 43¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 43¢
- 04:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 45¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 42¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 41¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 42¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 39¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 40¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 39¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 39¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 42¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 42¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 11, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).