California voter ID referendum passes?
Probability
43¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+10.0pp
24h Vol
$143.84
Liquidity
$31.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+9.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Up 10pp over 24h
Now 43¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 4595h with open resolution ambiguity.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 4594.8h
- 13:10SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 4595h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:10PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 43¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 43¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 43¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 43¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 43¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 43¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 43¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 43¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 40¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 37¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
6- 2¢-2.3pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Other · Vol $2.0M
- 100¢+59.0pp
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner
Other · Vol $1.1M
- 59¢-1.0pp
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $721.0K
- 5¢-34.5pp
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $681.6K
- 86¢0.0pp
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $559.8K
- 43¢+7.0pp
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
Other · Vol $496.7K
Market Description
The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”. If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Nov 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).