Loading shell…
OtherExpires Nov 3, 2026

California voter ID referendum passes?

Probability

43¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+10.0pp

24h Vol

$143.84

Liquidity

$31.9K

Probability (last 7 days)

+9.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:10
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Up 10pp over 24h

    Now 43¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 4595h with open resolution ambiguity.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 4594.8h

    LOW
  • 13:10Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 4595h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 13:10Price

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”. If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Nov 3, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).