0xd45958e02d9cb1019fc96fc9e86ba27920b613f9
0xd45958e02d9cb1019fc96fc9e86ba27920b613f9
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
7
Open notional
$14.9K
Total PnL
$-14.9K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
22470 shares @ 52.3¢·now 55.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$12.5K
$709.83
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
6500 shares @ 36.0¢·now 32.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$2.1K
$-227.50
- YES
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
509 shares @ 65.8¢·now 30.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$152.66
$-182.11
- YES
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?
300 shares @ 66.0¢·now 34.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$102.00
$-96.00
- YES
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?
300 shares @ 46.0¢·now 17.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$51.00
$-87.00
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
20726 shares @ 72.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-15.0K
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
89 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$1.11Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$1.11Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$1.11Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.13Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$1.13Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$1.11Jul 20, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$1.12Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$1.11Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.10Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$1.10Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$1.11Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$1.10Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$1.09Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$1.07Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$1.06Jul 11, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$1.08Jul 10, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$1.07Jul 9, 00:20 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$0.00Jul 8, 15:12 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET$0.00Jul 8, 15:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$26.26Jul 8, 13:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
14 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
$10.0K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 14
- Avg trade size
- $29.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 24, 00:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.