Frayed-Vault
0xd4f7317eaf098d9958ea4a4860fda106c703aede
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
46
Open notional
$1.5K
Total PnL
$-4.7K
Realised
$83.95
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 46- NO
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
1200 shares @ 88.6¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$-13.50
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
200 shares @ 83.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$153.00
$-13.00
- NO
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
115 shares @ 91.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$106.67
$1.73
- NO
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
85 shares @ 91.6¢·now 94.8¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$80.57
$2.67
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
50 shares @ 92.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$45.25
$-0.75
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
56 shares @ 76.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$44.15
$1.94
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
50 shares @ 74.8¢·now 75.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$37.48
$0.07
- YES
Will Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals?
2167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$11.92
$-1.08
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?
200 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.7¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.30
$-4.30
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?
25 shares @ 20.4¢·now 2.4¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.58
$-4.42
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?$46.26Jul 28, 18:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$27.76Jul 28, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$37.87Jul 28, 12:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$10.17Jul 28, 11:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?$77.84Jul 27, 02:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?$154.10Jul 26, 11:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?$47.55Jul 25, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?$100.15Jul 25, 11:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$5.16Jul 25, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals?$13.65Jul 24, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$50.16Jul 24, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?$50.08Jul 24, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?$5.98Jul 24, 16:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?$31.49Jul 24, 16:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Solana reach $90 in July?$40.21Jul 24, 11:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Solana reach $90 in July?$12.25Jul 24, 11:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$42.20Jul 23, 16:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?$11.06Jul 23, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?$19.92Jul 23, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?$10.90Jul 23, 07:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $48.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 09:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.