Natural-Gear
0xd52b8dcb4b812c4056faf41164a6f6c73f4c5c72
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
89
Open notional
$82.8K
Total PnL
$-51.6K
Realised
$101.3K
Win rate
63%
30 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 89- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
40000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 80.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$32.1K
$12.1K
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
166603 shares @ 14.3¢·now 5.2¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$8.7K
$-15.1K
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
40000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 19.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$7.9K
$-12.1K
- NO
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?
7414 shares @ 97.2¢·now 97.5¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$7.2K
$19.44
- NO
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
17000 shares @ 41.9¢·now 40.8¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$6.9K
$-190.20
- NO
US recession by end of 2026?
6187 shares @ 86.3¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$5.6K
$260.97
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
41646 shares @ 11.5¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$2.3K
$-2.5K
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
544671 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.9K
$-15.3K
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
2075 shares @ 73.0¢·now 77.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.6K
$87.93
- YES
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
4612 shares @ 27.6¢·now 32.6¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$1.5K
$229.01
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.08Jul 18, 03:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.92Jul 18, 03:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$6.25Jul 18, 02:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?$110.00Jul 18, 01:40 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.72Jul 18, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$4.20Jul 18, 00:15 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$3.87Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.02Jul 17, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.02Jul 17, 22:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GTA 6 cost $100+?$229.27Jul 17, 22:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$7.80Jul 17, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.01Jul 17, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.00Jul 17, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.84Jul 17, 18:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.02Jul 17, 18:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.63Jul 17, 18:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.10Jul 17, 18:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.10Jul 17, 18:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.05Jul 17, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.32Jul 17, 18:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 30 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
30 closed markets, 63% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $7.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 17:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 18, 03:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 30 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.