Natural-Gear
0xd52b8dcb4b812c4056faf41164a6f6c73f4c5c72
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
30
Open notional
$23.9K
Total PnL
$23.45
Realised
$1.8K
Win rate
82%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- NO
US recession by end of 2026?
7736 shares @ 78.6¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$6.1K
$-11.32
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
12931 shares @ 39.9¢·now 34.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$4.5K
$-701.51
- NO
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
3895 shares @ 94.8¢·now 96.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.7K
$49.66
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
3016 shares @ 69.9¢·now 70.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.1K
$21.87
- NO
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?
2000 shares @ 90.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$1.8K
$10.00
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
6778 shares @ 25.3¢·now 14.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$982.84
$-731.24
- NO
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?
1245 shares @ 53.7¢·now 75.5¢·exp May 22, 2026$940.08
$271.08
- NO
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?
970 shares @ 75.6¢·now 72.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$703.23
$-30.15
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
1436 shares @ 53.8¢·now 42.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$610.25
$-163.06
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
2323 shares @ 34.5¢·now 24.5¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$569.09
$-231.75
Recent activity
- MERGEWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?$810.68May 23, 03:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?$40.56May 23, 03:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$133.81May 23, 03:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?$437.97May 23, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?$37.92May 23, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?$3.0KMay 23, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?$1.0KMay 23, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS recession by end of 2026?$53.18May 23, 03:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$98.57May 23, 02:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.99May 23, 02:42 UTC
- TRADESELLSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?$13.26May 23, 02:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS recession by end of 2026?$3.90May 23, 02:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?$5.0KMay 23, 02:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?$0.37May 23, 02:05 UTC
- TRADESELLSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?$6.20May 23, 02:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?$0.00May 23, 01:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?$0.00May 23, 01:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?$104.92May 23, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?$5.08May 23, 01:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?$150.00May 23, 01:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $239.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 23, 00:18 UTC
- Last active
- May 23, 03:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".