Calm-Verification
0xd607432a3b8e5e91fd1d79c53a4735e28c924b09
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
21
Open notional
$678.65
Total PnL
$-436.88
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
498 shares @ 67.3¢·now 63.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$316.19
$-18.81
- NO
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
217 shares @ 92.0¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$215.12
$15.12
- YES
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?
34 shares @ 87.8¢·now 90.4¢·exp May 15, 2026$30.88
$0.88
- YES
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
50 shares @ 40.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$20.25
$0.25
- YES
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
34 shares @ 58.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$18.45
$-1.55
- YES
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
48 shares @ 41.7¢·now 37.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.97
$-2.03
- YES
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?
154 shares @ 13.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$16.15
$-3.85
- YES
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
188 shares @ 16.0¢·now 8.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$15.75
$-14.25
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
78 shares @ 38.7¢·now 18.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$14.36
$-15.64
- YES
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
12 shares @ 86.0¢·now 62.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$7.21
$-2.79
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYAndy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?$20.7018h ago
- TRADEBUYJames Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?$1.001d ago
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by December 31, 2026?$5.071d ago
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?$15.351d ago
- TRADEBUYJerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?$5.131d ago
- REDEEMIsrael x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?$33.881d ago
- TRADEBUYWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$20.002d ago
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?$5.123d ago
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by December 31, 2026?$101.324d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by April 30?$5.005d ago
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$10.006d ago
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$20.006d ago
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by December 31, 2026?$30.006d ago
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by April 30, 2026?$5.006d ago
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$10.006d ago
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$10.006d ago
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$10.006d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?$10.006d ago
- TRADEBUYKevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?$10.007d ago
- REDEEMWill the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by June 30?$27.408d ago
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $35.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- 112d ago
- Last active
- 18h ago
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".