Second-Hand-Fishmonger
0xd60a46464a90bc42996e1d373ada00fcc89d5a90
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
59
Open notional
$55.44
Total PnL
$-710.05
Realised
$-21.04
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 59- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
97 shares @ 31.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$29.52
$-0.48
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?
297 shares @ 6.7¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.31
$-3.69
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?
65 shares @ 15.5¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.78
$-3.22
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
27 shares @ 37.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.84
$-7.16
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
50000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 28, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Russia enter Huliaipole by December 15?
993 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-90.00
- YES
Will Gold close between $4700 and $4800 at the end of 2025?
801 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-27.00
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?
600 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-9.61
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?$20.75Jun 20, 07:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?$10.34Jun 7, 09:51 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$21.74Jun 7, 09:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June?$41.18Jun 7, 09:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET$1.06May 9, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$10.38May 8, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$1.04May 8, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET$1.07May 8, 11:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?$12.83May 8, 07:43 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET$53.57May 8, 07:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET$30.92May 8, 07:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$1.07May 8, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$1.07May 8, 07:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$1.07May 8, 07:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$1.07May 8, 07:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$1.07May 8, 07:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$20.62May 8, 07:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$10.44May 8, 06:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET$30.99Apr 30, 14:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?$14.19Apr 30, 14:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $9.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 29, 08:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 20, 07:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.