0xd681f360e3cd3c7c66b657f34e56cd526fac4c5a
0xd681f360e3cd3c7c66b657f34e56cd526fac4c5a
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$372.76
Total PnL
$-238.59
Realised
$-24.17
Win rate
0%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- YES
Will the Denver Nuggets win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?
71 shares @ 45.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$71.09
$39.10
- NO
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?
53 shares @ 70.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$52.65
$15.70
- YES
Will the Los Angeles Kings make the NHL Playoffs?
35 shares @ 41.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$34.61
$20.42
- NO
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
51 shares @ 50.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$25.42
$-0.26
- NO
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
46 shares @ 50.8¢·now 50.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$23.09
$-0.30
- NO
Trump out as President before GTA VI?
44 shares @ 50.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$22.05
$0.22
- NO
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?
22 shares @ 24.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$21.79
$16.56
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
41 shares @ 51.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$20.77
$-0.21
- NO
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
41 shares @ 50.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$20.06
$-0.20
- NO
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
111 shares @ 20.0¢·now 18.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$20.05
$-2.23
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?$20.77Jul 20, 11:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?$22.99Jul 9, 00:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?$20.95Jul 1, 08:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?$11.01Jun 30, 01:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 36 and 39 inclusive?$11.42Jun 29, 23:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?$6.91Jun 26, 11:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?$14.95Jun 25, 19:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?$10.85Jun 25, 18:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$29.53Jun 25, 02:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?$8.43Jun 24, 01:28 UTC
- TRADESELLLabour leadership election scheduled by June 30?$2.42Jun 22, 10:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYLabour leadership election scheduled by June 30?$23.74Jun 21, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?$11.65Jun 21, 12:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$12.32Jun 19, 19:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?$21.25Jun 18, 16:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?$30.45Jun 18, 16:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?$4.46Jun 12, 06:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?$5.75Jun 7, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?$21.48Jun 7, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?$11.01Jun 6, 16:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $11.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 30, 20:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 11:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.