0xd9436dd98f1f9f04d0782c38245aa022afbe915d
0xd9436dd98f1f9f04d0782c38245aa022afbe915d
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
46
Open notional
$60.40
Total PnL
$-79.80
Realised
$-0.76
Win rate
43%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 46- YES
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?
21 shares @ 14.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$21.43
$18.43
- YES
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?
8 shares @ 37.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$8.11
$5.11
- NO
Will the Social Democrats (SD) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?
8 shares @ 39.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$7.69
$4.69
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
7 shares @ 74.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.76
$1.76
- NO
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
4 shares @ 72.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.71
$0.71
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?
3 shares @ 87.0¢·now 91.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$3.14
$0.14
- NO
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?
3 shares @ 88.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.05
$0.05
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?
22 shares @ 25.7¢·now 10.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.30
$-3.33
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?
16 shares @ 36.1¢·now 12.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.95
$-3.68
- YES
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?
102 shares @ 7.2¢·now 1.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.43
$-5.96
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.