US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 1571h with open resolution ambiguity.

2. 2

   Thin liquidity

   Only $19.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of former First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Raul Castro between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.