Fresh-Expansionism
0xd9e5ccc440f98d2cb2c53a73887c7643eb67b727
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
36
Open notional
$21.99
Total PnL
$-901.27
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- NO
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
4 shares @ 96.4¢·now 97.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.28
$0.04
- NO
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?
3 shares @ 98.5¢·now 95.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.92
$-0.08
- NO
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be below 1.0%?
3 shares @ 99.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$2.59
$0.01
- NO
Human moon landing in 2026?
2 shares @ 97.0¢·now 97.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.03
$0.01
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
2 shares @ 90.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.63
$0.09
- NO
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
2 shares @ 92.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.58
$0.04
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
2 shares @ 90.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.57
$-0.04
- NO
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?
2 shares @ 92.3¢·now 96.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.52
$0.06
- NO
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
2 shares @ 93.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.51
$0.01
- NO
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?
1 shares @ 86.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.03
$0.03
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?$2.54Jul 1, 19:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day?$1.76Jul 1, 07:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Freddie Mac’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day?$5.01Jul 1, 07:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill China blockade Taiwan by June 30?$2.57Jul 1, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMAnthropic CEO arrested?$1.08Jul 1, 06:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026?$2.11Jun 27, 21:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win on 2026-06-21?$4.44Jun 21, 18:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win on 2026-06-21?$4.01Jun 21, 13:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?$5.26Jun 19, 13:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$1.82Jun 17, 21:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?$5.02Jun 17, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?$5.01Jun 17, 01:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?$1.09Jun 12, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.08Jun 11, 08:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026?$1.98Jun 11, 08:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?$5.00Jun 4, 08:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?$5.32Jun 1, 05:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3?$6.98Jun 1, 05:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?$5.02May 29, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3?$6.04May 29, 13:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
21 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 21
- Avg trade size
- $3.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 2, 03:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 19:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.