Curvy-Residue
0xd9e7c4534905e459ec75e9f5d828c58a12924cde
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
51
Open notional
$31.8K
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$68.18
Win rate
57%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 51- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
4800 shares @ 70.5¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.7K
$286.01
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
4000 shares @ 90.8¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.6K
$-10.00
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
2726 shares @ 98.5¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.7K
$36.65
- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
2500 shares @ 87.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.4K
$212.50
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
3850 shares @ 56.1¢·now 57.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.2K
$51.78
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?
2000 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.0K
$15.00
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?
2000 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$2.0K
$13.00
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
1500 shares @ 93.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.4K
$22.50
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
1400 shares @ 89.1¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.3K
$61.00
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
1045 shares @ 95.2¢·now 95.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$999.02
$4.11
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?$151.85Jul 28, 21:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?$1.06Jul 28, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.87Jul 28, 19:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?$412.30Jul 28, 19:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?$28.65Jul 28, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strike on Cuba by December 31?$18.28Jul 28, 18:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strike on Cuba by December 31?$28.65Jul 28, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?$28.62Jul 28, 15:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?$46.90Jul 28, 14:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?$963.99Jul 28, 14:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jul 28, 14:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?$0.00Jul 28, 14:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?$238.10Jul 28, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?$920.81Jul 28, 14:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?$50.22Jul 28, 14:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?$495.00Jul 28, 14:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strike on Cuba by December 31?$7.59Jul 28, 14:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by July 31?$994.00Jul 28, 14:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strike on Cuba by December 31?$11.73Jul 28, 14:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strike on Cuba by December 31?$12.42Jul 28, 14:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
57% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $211.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 08:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 21:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.