Haunting-Rubric
0xdb405a9ad581a23c68a32b5d5869d4ad5ae73612
Wallet digest
Activity score
97/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
150
Open notional
$38.3K
Total PnL
$138.98
Realised
$109.94
Win rate
67%
69 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 150- NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
5622 shares @ 91.2¢·now 97.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.5K
$328.89
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
5855 shares @ 84.0¢·now 79.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$4.6K
$-274.96
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?
3664 shares @ 86.8¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.1K
$-83.84
- NO
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?
3776 shares @ 83.9¢·now 79.8¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$3.0K
$-157.62
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
2788 shares @ 91.0¢·now 96.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.7K
$142.05
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
2611 shares @ 97.1¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.6K
$66.53
- NO
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
2293 shares @ 86.9¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.3K
$276.10
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
2500 shares @ 80.5¢·now 79.7¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$2.0K
$-21.25
- NO
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
1998 shares @ 86.4¢·now 98.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.0K
$235.88
- NO
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?
1188 shares @ 93.7¢·now 96.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.1K
$31.51
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?$0.28Jul 28, 14:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cache Be Removed by July 31, 2026?$0.06Jul 28, 10:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anubis Be Removed by July 31, 2026?$0.05Jul 28, 10:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Miguel Díaz-Canel in July 2026?$0.05Jul 28, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Miguel Díaz-Canel in July 2026?$0.00Jul 28, 07:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jared Golden be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$35.00Jul 28, 06:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kansas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?$38.36Jul 28, 04:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Barrett Pfeiffer come in second-place on Big Brother season 28?$45.39Jul 28, 03:02 UTC
- TRADESELLDario Amodei arrested by December 31?$2.45Jul 28, 02:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by July 31?$0.05Jul 28, 02:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $65B by July 31?$0.05Jul 28, 02:18 UTC
- REDEEMIran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?$100.00Jul 28, 01:41 UTC
- REWARD$49.61Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Melody Morris come in third-place on Big Brother season 28?$0.06Jul 27, 23:31 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?$0.37Jul 27, 19:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jordan Bardella be the next President of the National Rally in 2026?$1.29Jul 27, 19:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?$1.00Jul 27, 19:10 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 27?$1.51Jul 27, 18:52 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 27?$1.16Jul 27, 18:27 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$3.07Jul 27, 17:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
70/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 69 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
69 closed markets, 67% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $257.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 16:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 14:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 69 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.