PoliticsExpires Nov 3, 2026
Creator

Will Kansas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?

Probability

14¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-1.0pp

24h Vol

$8.00

Liquidity

$13.2K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Nov 3, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 30, 2026, 19:00May 6, 2026, 22:08
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-06T22-08Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 1pp over 24h

    Now 14¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $13.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 4321.9h

    LOW

Price movement

-1.0pp over the last 24h, now 14¢.

Biggest hourly move: -37.5pp at 4d ago (to 13¢).

Show top 8 of 27 hourly moves
  • 3d ago · -37.5pp → 13¢
  • 3d ago · -37.5pp → 13¢
  • 3d ago · -37.5pp → 13¢
  • 3d ago · -37.5pp → 13¢
  • 3d ago · -37.5pp → 13¢
  • 3d ago · -37.5pp → 13¢
  • 3d ago · -37.5pp → 13¢
  • 3d ago · -37.5pp → 13¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWhich states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed US state uses a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, after the 2024 United States congressional elections, the listed state must have adopted a new congressional district map that is: - Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority; - Not enjoined, vacated or otherwise fully struck down prior to the 2026 United States Midterm elections; and - In effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will qualify if they are in effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are completely redrawn by a court, special master, or legislature before implementation will not qualify, unless the redrawn map is itself a new map used in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If the 2026 United States midterm elections occur and no new qualifying map is in use, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the listed state and a consensus of credible reporting.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

midterm election

Reason

Election markets are Politics.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Kansas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?"?

As of Wed, 06 May 2026 22:08:20 GMT, YES is priced at 14% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Nov 3, 2026 (2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$8.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $13.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

13 wallets
Open on Polymarket