0xdb6c5550675e149acff25207ad43bb21319743ef
0xdb6c5550675e149acff25207ad43bb21319743ef
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
102
Open notional
$210.19
Total PnL
$-758.86
Realised
$0.17
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 102- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
31 shares @ 83.1¢·now 75.2¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$23.24
$-2.44
- NO
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
19 shares @ 54.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$12.41
$2.33
- NO
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
13 shares @ 83.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$10.82
$0.32
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
39 shares @ 13.0¢·now 25.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$9.98
$4.94
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
38 shares @ 13.6¢·now 24.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$9.43
$4.24
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
23 shares @ 44.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$9.38
$-0.81
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
11 shares @ 89.0¢·now 74.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$8.41
$-1.67
- NO
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
10 shares @ 51.9¢·now 76.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$7.56
$2.43
- YES
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
20 shares @ 25.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$7.20
$2.13
- YES
Fed rate hike in 2026?
8 shares @ 65.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$6.06
$0.70
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?$5.37Jul 23, 05:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$5.26Jul 22, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$5.45Jul 22, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$5.13Jul 22, 14:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$5.13Jul 22, 14:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$5.20Jul 22, 08:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$5.16Jul 22, 08:34 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$5.38Jul 21, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$5.16Jul 21, 19:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$5.27Jul 21, 19:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?$5.18Jul 21, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vegas Golden Knights be the 2027 NHL Western Conference Champion?$5.22Jul 21, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$5.42Jul 21, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dallas Stars be the 2027 NHL Western Conference Champion?$5.23Jul 21, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$5.20Jul 21, 18:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$5.37Jul 21, 15:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $5.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 19:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.