Aching-Competition
0xdc7217b3b07913ae9d835d43e22d98d222804dec
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
163
Open notional
$23.39
Total PnL
$-137.12
Realised
$2.07
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 163- NO
Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?
15 shares @ 31.3¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.67
$-1.02
- YES
Will Atlético Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?
40 shares @ 7.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp May 30, 2027$1.80
$-1.00
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
2 shares @ 85.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.67
$0.17
- YES
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $6B in 2026?
5 shares @ 34.0¢·now 27.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.38
$-0.33
- NO
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
3 shares @ 49.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.21
$-0.29
- YES
Will Taylor Swift be the top artist for 2026?
18 shares @ 5.0¢·now 6.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.12
$0.22
- YES
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?
200 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.5¢·exp May 30, 2027$1.10
$0.50
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5 shares @ 25.0¢·now 20.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.00
$-0.25
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
4 shares @ 26.0¢·now 22.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.86
$-0.14
- NO
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?
3 shares @ 35.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$0.84
$-0.16
Recent activity
- REDEEMSpain vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners$3.17Jul 19, 22:40 UTC
- REDEEMPau Cubarsí: 1+ shots$3.57Jul 19, 22:29 UTC
- REDEEMSpain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?$3.03Jul 19, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5$1.04Jul 19, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYPau Cubarsí: 1+ shots$1.04Jul 19, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYLamine Yamal: 1+ assists$1.04Jul 19, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYLionel Messi: 1+ assists$1.04Jul 19, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners$2.04Jul 19, 11:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners$1.04Jul 19, 11:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$7.30Jul 17, 05:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "World Cup" during Speech to the Nation?$1.00Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast say "Race" during his next gaming YouTube video?$1.03Jul 16, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Venezuela" during Speech to the Nation?$1.03Jul 16, 19:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Six Seven" during Speech to the Nation?$1.04Jul 16, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iraq" during Speech to the Nation?$1.03Jul 16, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Speech to the Nation?$1.03Jul 16, 19:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "Turnover" during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?$1.04Jul 16, 19:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?$1.03Jul 16, 19:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Switzerland: Argentina O/U 3.5 Corners AND Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Argentina vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners$0.69Jul 11, 10:43 UTC
- TRADESELLSpain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance$5.20Jul 10, 17:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $0.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 15:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 22:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.