Variable-Fallacy
0xdf1beb478e8f8e4c585e1719ebfb3014b64d29d8
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$240.77
Total PnL
$-9.89
Realised
$-1.09
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Carlos Alcaraz win a calendar Grand Slam in 2026?
111 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$110.63
$0.63
- NO
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open?
75 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$74.89
$0.64
- NO
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?
50 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$49.49
$0.00
- YES
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?
6 shares @ 54.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$3.92
$0.92
- YES
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
7 shares @ 15.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp May 27, 2026$1.17
$0.17
- NO
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
2 shares @ 61.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.68
$-0.32
- NO
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
15 shares @ 9.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 12?
10 shares @ 86.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-8.60
- TIMBERWOLVES
Spurs vs. Timberwolves
6 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-0.73
Recent activity
- REDEEMInternazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud$58.14May 17, 20:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$0.33May 17, 03:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYInternazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud$50.21May 17, 03:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 12?$1.82May 13, 03:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 12?$8.66May 11, 14:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 12?$1.02May 11, 14:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$1.03May 11, 13:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?$0.05May 11, 00:48 UTC
- TRADESELLNBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers $0.13May 10, 12:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpurs vs. Timberwolves$0.75May 9, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYNBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers $1.03May 9, 01:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?$3.04May 9, 01:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?$22.65May 4, 00:23 UTC
- REDEEMNBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets $186.38May 2, 06:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYNBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets $24.19Apr 30, 13:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open?$24.82Apr 30, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYNBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets $10.84Apr 29, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYNBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets $50.16Apr 28, 13:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?$27.35Apr 28, 03:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYNBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets $80.00Apr 25, 14:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $17.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 27, 14:52 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 20:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".