Unwritten-Hybridization
0xdf59c7f09a1f0fe407a9fb48f7282012398adeb0
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
49
Open notional
$7.4K
Total PnL
$-313.38
Realised
$593.56
Win rate
86%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- NO
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?
624 shares @ 87.1¢·now 96.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$601.16
$58.27
- NO
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
800 shares @ 70.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$580.00
$20.00
- NO
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
552 shares @ 74.7¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$438.56
$26.28
- NO
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
400 shares @ 92.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$366.00
$-2.00
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
383 shares @ 77.3¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$331.71
$35.13
- YES
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
400 shares @ 76.7¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$330.00
$23.10
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
400 shares @ 64.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$318.01
$62.00
- NO
US strike on Mexico by December 31?
359 shares @ 83.6¢·now 86.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$308.63
$8.63
- NO
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
300 shares @ 97.6¢·now 96.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$287.85
$-4.95
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
283 shares @ 79.5¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$244.73
$19.73
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.03Jun 24, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?$71.01Jun 23, 23:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026?$224.53Jun 23, 23:28 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?$199.99Jun 23, 23:27 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$196.04Jun 23, 23:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?$71.54Jun 23, 10:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$141.44Jun 23, 10:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$82.00Jun 23, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$368.00Jun 23, 10:21 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$666.06Jun 23, 10:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 23, 00:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$55.03Jun 22, 19:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$109.17Jun 22, 19:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?$15.26Jun 22, 19:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?$16.00Jun 22, 19:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?$77.00Jun 22, 19:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?$16.00Jun 22, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?$77.00Jun 22, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no listed leader be out before 2027?$1.00Jun 22, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?$152.90Jun 22, 19:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
86% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $105.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 21:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 24, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.