Nifty-Burn
0xdfc7146f0ac30e2f1072a6140c7e1ad31047b2e8
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$161.32
Total PnL
$-660.21
Realised
$-6.38
Win rate
33%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?
25 shares @ 23.2¢·now 33.5¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$8.36
$2.57
- YES
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?
11 shares @ 64.7¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$7.94
$0.55
- NO
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
12 shares @ 49.8¢·now 60.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.27
$1.28
- YES
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
10 shares @ 59.5¢·now 72.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$7.20
$1.25
- NO
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?
10 shares @ 55.0¢·now 69.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.90
$1.40
- YES
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
17 shares @ 34.5¢·now 39.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.77
$0.78
- NO
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
10 shares @ 60.5¢·now 67.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$6.75
$0.70
- NO
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
11 shares @ 54.2¢·now 63.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.73
$0.94
- YES
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?
17 shares @ 31.3¢·now 39.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.46
$1.26
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
15 shares @ 40.4¢·now 43.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.44
$0.46
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$3.02Jun 26, 02:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Starmer officially leave office by July 17?$0.39Jun 26, 02:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?$3.92Jun 26, 02:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?$1.00Jun 26, 02:28 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Starmer officially leave office by July 17?$1.00Jun 25, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$2.18Jun 25, 18:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYDua Lipa pregnant in 2026?$1.41Jun 25, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYDua Lipa pregnant in 2026?$2.48Jun 25, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$1.00Jun 25, 10:28 UTC
- TRADESELLSAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?$0.12Jun 25, 10:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?$1.29Jun 25, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Starmer officially leave office by July 17?$1.03Jun 25, 02:34 UTC
- TRADESELLSAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?$0.97Jun 25, 02:34 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 25, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$8.00Jun 25, 00:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?$1.00Jun 24, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 24?$0.09Jun 24, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?$1.28Jun 24, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026?$2.31Jun 24, 10:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $1.44
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 19:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 02:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.