Scrawny-Debris
0xe1173c89e54a444c355f928031aadbbc0bdfb4e7
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
64
Open notional
$8.1K
Total PnL
$300.29
Realised
$300.53
Win rate
83%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 64- YES
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
4748 shares @ 34.2¢·now 33.9¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.6K
$-16.11
- NO
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
3441 shares @ 43.2¢·now 41.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.4K
$-57.55
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
1500 shares @ 89.2¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.4K
$19.99
- NO
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?
724 shares @ 71.6¢·now 97.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$703.57
$185.02
- NOTHING
Nothing Ever Happens: July
306 shares @ 75.3¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$303.58
$73.02
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
252 shares @ 85.4¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$230.58
$15.38
- YES
Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
530 shares @ 23.9¢·now 40.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$214.65
$87.75
- YES
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
7945 shares @ 2.6¢·now 2.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$201.79
$-7.46
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?
295 shares @ 58.2¢·now 66.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$196.17
$24.42
- NO
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
257 shares @ 57.4¢·now 64.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$165.96
$18.33
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$31.99Jul 29, 12:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$177.43Jul 29, 10:01 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$43.63Jul 28, 05:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- REWARD$1.03Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$16.96Jul 26, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?$90.90Jul 26, 15:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: July$85.00Jul 26, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: July$5.37Jul 26, 15:11 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?$93.00Jul 26, 15:10 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by July 31?$158.42Jul 26, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$74.38Jul 26, 12:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$21.00Jul 26, 09:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?$55.00Jul 26, 09:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?$27.20Jul 25, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$44.00Jul 25, 16:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by July 31?$120.00Jul 25, 07:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $56.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 18:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 12:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.