Fearless-Misnomer
0xe234959595e01dacd391a9502a6ad0edf4e3304a
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
101
Open notional
$156.3K
Total PnL
$-36.6K
Realised
$-8.8K
Win rate
42%
45 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 101- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
48566 shares @ 41.1¢·now 46.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.3K
$2.4K
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
20000 shares @ 70.9¢·now 74.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$14.8K
$635.02
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
16946 shares @ 56.7¢·now 58.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$9.9K
$304.39
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
8469 shares @ 76.4¢·now 83.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$7.1K
$597.12
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?
6962 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$7.0K
$6.50
- NO
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
10000 shares @ 58.2¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$6.9K
$1.1K
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
15806 shares @ 44.9¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$6.9K
$-220.87
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?
6320 shares @ 89.3¢·now 93.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$5.9K
$233.21
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
5015 shares @ 65.9¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.0K
$1.7K
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
5000 shares @ 93.2¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.0K
$320.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$8.73Jul 29, 13:29 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$12.74Jul 29, 12:19 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$29.74Jul 29, 12:19 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$522.31Jul 29, 12:18 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$2.43Jul 29, 12:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$3.59Jul 29, 12:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$32.69Jul 29, 12:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$4.93Jul 29, 12:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$3.2KJul 29, 12:07 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$2.97Jul 29, 12:06 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$2.98Jul 29, 12:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$16.44Jul 29, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$4.92Jul 29, 11:53 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$1.98Jul 29, 11:53 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$1.99Jul 29, 11:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$4.22Jul 29, 11:52 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$254.51Jul 29, 11:39 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$0.02Jul 29, 11:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$45.00Jul 29, 11:19 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$2.64Jul 29, 11:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$47.1K
Trades
1
Buy share
36%
Window
Jun 14, 23:20 UTC → Jun 15, 00:05 UTC
- BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$16.9K@84¢Jun 15, 00:05 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
42% win rate over 45 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 2 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
45 closed markets, 42% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
36%
Sample
low
2 ledger trades
Top market concentration
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
$47.1K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $121.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 10:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 13:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 45 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.