Breakable-Stepsister
0xe23b29408015a53249709a4e8331f9358c89f147
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
91
Open notional
$592.88
Total PnL
$2.0K
Realised
$2.1K
Win rate
66%
83 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 91- YES
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
914 shares @ 6.3¢·now 6.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$59.44
$1.41
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
875 shares @ 6.2¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$48.14
$-6.54
- YES
AI bubble burst in 2026?
150 shares @ 15.1¢·now 18.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.70
$5.07
- YES
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
869 shares @ 4.3¢·now 2.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.64
$-12.12
- YES
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
292 shares @ 7.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.91
$1.45
- YES
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?
165 shares @ 17.5¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.95
$-9.97
- YES
US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?
89 shares @ 36.8¢·now 20.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.86
$-15.03
- YES
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
175 shares @ 8.0¢·now 10.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.49
$3.50
- YES
New pandemic in 2026?
203 shares @ 8.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.26
$1.09
- YES
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?
41 shares @ 42.0¢·now 39.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.86
$-1.24
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?$0.84Jul 28, 21:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?$0.63Jul 28, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?$0.64Jul 28, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?$14.72Jul 28, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?$3.58Jul 28, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?$26.56Jul 28, 19:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$0.71Jul 28, 19:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?$4.11Jul 28, 18:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYAI bubble burst in 2026?$6.57Jul 28, 17:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYAI bubble burst in 2026?$16.06Jul 28, 17:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew pandemic in 2026?$2.37Jul 28, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew pandemic in 2026?$0.58Jul 28, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew pandemic in 2026?$1.34Jul 28, 17:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?$7.88Jul 28, 17:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026?$0.07Jul 28, 16:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026?$0.81Jul 28, 16:55 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?$2.08Jul 28, 16:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew pandemic in 2026?$11.75Jul 28, 16:00 UTC
- TRADESELLSpain snap election called in 2026?$2.28Jul 28, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$3.26Jul 28, 15:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
66% win rate over 83 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
83 closed markets, 66% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $7.62
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 23:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 21:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 83 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.