Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?
Probability
55¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$26.49
Liquidity
$26.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5985.2h
- 14:49SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 55¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 54¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 54¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 54¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 54¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 54¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 55¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 55¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 55¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 55¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 54¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 55¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 55¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 54¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 55¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 54¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 54¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 54¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 54¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 53¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 63¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 63¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 63¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 63¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 63¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 63¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 63¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 63¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).