0xe3265ff9ffe77a0d7341395c5271c70a340423b0
0xe3265ff9ffe77a0d7341395c5271c70a340423b0
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$547.14
Total PnL
$92.07
Realised
$17.54
Win rate
33%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
154 shares @ 66.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$154.00
$52.36
- YES
Will Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
125 shares @ 91.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$124.52
$11.02
- NO
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
90 shares @ 87.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$90.31
$11.62
- NO
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
46 shares @ 97.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$46.17
$1.09
- YES
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
44 shares @ 89.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$44.25
$4.56
- NO
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
37 shares @ 86.0¢·now 97.4¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$36.02
$4.20
- YES
Will Tom Begich advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
18 shares @ 86.6¢·now 96.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$16.90
$1.75
- YES
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?
11 shares @ 74.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$11.09
$2.84
- NO
Will José Williams finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
11 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$11.00
$0.11
- YES
Will Jocelyn Benson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Democratic primary election?
6 shares @ 89.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$5.91
$0.57
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?$0.00May 3, 06:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?$0.00May 2, 08:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$2.80Apr 24, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tom Begich advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?$8.70Apr 24, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$2.25Apr 24, 05:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gregor Heise be the Republican Nominee for TX-30?$1.98Apr 23, 18:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$101.64Apr 23, 07:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$0.85Apr 22, 20:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$1.65Apr 22, 19:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$29.10Apr 22, 19:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$1.96Apr 22, 15:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$1.96Apr 22, 15:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$2.94Apr 22, 07:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?$92.63Apr 21, 23:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$5.88Apr 21, 22:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?$81.84Apr 21, 18:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?$16.11Apr 21, 11:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 5-10%?$3.02Apr 20, 17:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill GERB-SDS win between 60-64 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?$5.00Apr 20, 17:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win fewer than 75 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?$5.01Apr 20, 17:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $11.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 15, 09:59 UTC
- Last active
- May 3, 06:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.