Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?
Probability
95¢
1h
-0.4pp
24h
+5.4pp
24h Vol
$1.1K
Liquidity
$16.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+16.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Up 5pp over 24h
Now 95¢; -0.4pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 3
Wide spread — 4.2¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 13:44SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.4pp
to 95¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.9pp
to 94¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.3pp
to 96¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 94¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.6pp
to 93¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.8pp
to 94¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.1pp
to 92¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.2pp
to 93¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.1pp
to 92¢
- 01:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.9pp
to 93¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 90¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 91¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 86¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.8pp
to 91¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.8pp
to 90¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 91¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.8pp
to 89¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 94¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 91¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.1pp
to 86¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.1pp
to 86¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.2pp
to 91¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.2pp
to 91¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.9pp
to 91¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.8pp
to 91¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.4pp
to 91¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 91¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.9pp
to 91¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.8pp
to 92¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates who advance to the runoff of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election. If a different combination of candidates than those listed below advances to the runoff, if no runoff is being held, for example, because a candidate wins the first round outright, or if the candidates of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (4.2¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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