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PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 12, 2026

Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?

Probability

95¢

1h

-0.4pp

24h

+5.4pp

24h Vol

$1.1K

Liquidity

$16.4K

Probability (last 7 days)

+16.8pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 14:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:44
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Up 5pp over 24h

    Now 95¢; -0.4pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 4.2¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

  4. 4

    Past expiry — awaiting resolution

    Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 13:44Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW
  • 13:00Price

    Probability up 11.4pp

    to 95¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 9.9pp

    to 94¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability up 13.3pp

    to 96¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 11.5pp

    to 94¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 10.6pp

    to 93¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 9.8pp

    to 94¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 8.1pp

    to 92¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 6.2pp

    to 93¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 6.1pp

    to 92¢

    MEDIUM
  • 01:00Price

    Probability up 5.9pp

    to 93¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.8pp

    to 90¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.1pp

    to 91¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.3pp

    to 86¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.8pp

    to 91¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.8pp

    to 90¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 91¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.8pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 94¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.5pp

    to 91¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.1pp

    to 86¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.1pp

    to 86¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.2pp

    to 91¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.2pp

    to 91¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.9pp

    to 91¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.8pp

    to 91¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.4pp

    to 91¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 91¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.9pp

    to 91¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.8pp

    to 92¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates who advance to the runoff of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election. If a different combination of candidates than those listed below advances to the runoff, if no runoff is being held, for example, because a candidate wins the first round outright, or if the candidates of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 12, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (4.2¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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