Noxious-Scholar
0xe4668e1e7c85c5d8d5d6295e94c021fea69d9531
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
65
Open notional
$20.85
Total PnL
$-212.92
Realised
$8.94
Win rate
100%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 65- YES
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
9 shares @ 58.4¢·now 74.9¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$6.41
$1.41
- NO
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
5 shares @ 66.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.47
$0.17
- YES
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
40 shares @ 21.0¢·now 6.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.42
$-5.98
- YES
Will Venezuela become 51st state?
76 shares @ 4.1¢·now 2.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.06
$-1.05
- YES
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 25.0¢·now 18.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.80
$-0.70
- NO
Will there be at least 10,000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 32.0¢·now 23.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.15
$-0.45
- YES
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
22 shares @ 9.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?
25 shares @ 43.0¢·now 4.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.99
$-9.76
- YES
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
24 shares @ 4.1¢·now 2.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.72
$-0.28
- YES
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
9 shares @ 11.0¢·now 4.4¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$0.40
$-0.60
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 10,000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?$1.64Jul 28, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Roberto Mancini be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$1.32Jul 28, 11:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$5.70Jul 26, 01:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$1.36Jul 21, 14:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$8.14Jul 21, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?$4.12Jul 20, 11:08 UTC
- REDEEMFrance vs. England: Team to Win$5.00Jul 18, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. England: Team to Win$1.86Jul 17, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$1.24Jul 15, 23:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$4.34Jul 15, 23:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Argentina win on 2026-07-15?$20.00Jul 15, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYVenezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?$2.58Jul 15, 14:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$5.58Jul 13, 02:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-15?$3.21Jul 12, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-15?$3.21Jul 12, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win on 2026-07-14?$4.32Jul 12, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.89Jul 12, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.96Jul 11, 16:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.01Jul 11, 16:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$29.54Jul 10, 15:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $3.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 3, 11:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 14:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.