0xe4d04da1781c49c2dbebdd91448f85e5915fa47d
0xe4d04da1781c49c2dbebdd91448f85e5915fa47d
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$29.26
Total PnL
$-32.03
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.3¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$4.99
$-0.03
- NO
Will Dignity Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$4.93
$0.00
- NO
Will Baciro Djá win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 96.4¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$4.84
$-0.18
- NO
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 95.8¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$4.81
$-0.21
- NO
Will FLING win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 93.3¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$4.69
$-0.33
- NO
Will PS win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 93.0¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$4.67
$-0.35
- YES
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
5 shares @ 99.8¢·now 6.3¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$0.31
$-4.71
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 3AM ET
11 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2025$0.00
$-5.82
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 3AM ET
8 shares @ 75.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2025$0.00
$-5.82
- NO
Will Trump endorse Andrew Cuomo for NYC Mayor?
6 shares @ 99.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2025$0.00
$-5.86
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Slovakia pass the 2026 referendum question restoring the Office of the Special Prosecutor and National Crime Agency?$4.88Jul 14, 15:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump post "Mutilization" on Truth Social this week?$4.94Jul 6, 06:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump post "Mutilization" on Truth Social this week?$4.89Jul 6, 00:01 UTC
- REDEEMIran successfully targets shipping on July 1?$4.88Jul 4, 23:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Slovakia pass the 2026 referendum question restoring the Office of the Special Prosecutor and National Crime Agency?$4.88Jul 4, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping on July 1?$4.88Jul 1, 23:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30?$4.89Jul 1, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30?$4.89Jul 1, 12:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill NIKE Q4 NIKE Branded Footwear revenue be above $6.8B?$4.94Jun 30, 22:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 69m?$4.89Jun 30, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 69m?$4.88Jun 29, 11:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?$4.89Jun 27, 09:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?$4.84Jun 25, 15:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 0% and 2% in May?$4.88Jun 25, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NIKE Q4 NIKE Branded Footwear revenue be above $6.8B?$4.89Jun 25, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 0% and 2% in May?$4.88Jun 25, 05:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026?$4.86Jun 23, 09:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026?$4.84Jun 22, 16:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?$4.82Jun 22, 03:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?$4.82Jun 21, 19:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
23 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $4.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 2, 23:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 15:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.